今日股市行情分析

宏信证券黄胜

<!--[qianfan_html]--><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.meishanren.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476"><div class="preview_article ">            <!--[qianfan_bbs_start]-->    <p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">近期市场连续放量，市场极化还是较为严重，虽然1号组合近期也已经创了成立以来新高，但是过去3个月还是跑输了指数。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">主要原因是我们部分持仓未在市场风口，风格偏中性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新能源</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">目前最大的权重在光伏的隆基、通威以及风电的东方电缆。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">目前新能源尚在风口，暂时没有下调的计划。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">目前东方电缆估值仍处在合理区间内，建议继续持有。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">医药板块</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">普洛药业我们中长期看好，公司在原料药有重要的地位，同时近几年CDMO业务持续贡献利润，是提升估值的催化剂，当前估值处于合理区间。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">健帆生物由于近期出现一篇质疑的文章，股价出现高波。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们了解了下详情，透析加灌流是中国特殊国情的产物，有一定的合理性，质疑文章站在国际视野看问题，因此会认为公司不值这个价。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们综合考虑下更换为159938医药ETF。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">美亚光电和益丰药房已经出现一定的调整，美亚光电基本进入调整尾声。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">消费</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">目前持有中顺洁柔、丸美股份。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">受近期纸价上涨影响，最近中顺大涨15%以上，隔夜公司抛出了回购计划用于股权激烈，彰显了优质公司的管理能力。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">丸美股份回撤较为明显，最大的原因是公司收入增速不及预期，同时营销投入绝对值不高。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">由于公司专注在小领域导致抗风险能力较差，相比珀莱雅又有一定差距，但是我们认为行业赛道够大，公司能够凭借研发实力逐步扩大产品矩阵，目前优势就是估值较低。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">科技行业</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">主要是科技ETF、芯片ETF、海能实业等。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">ETF作为配置无需交易。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">海能实业总属苹果产业链，近期有消息称苹果12销量不错，昨日蓝思科技大涨超11%。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">苹果产业链重拾信心，海能实业可以加配至标准仓位。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">传统行业</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新华保险和中国建筑。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">短期看金融的利空仍在影响市场，但是对保险股我们认为没有重大影响，耐心持有。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国建筑大部分业务属于地产，短期资金关注度仍不高，我们计划暂时调整至600004白云机场。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">疫情影响力逐渐减小，12月经营数据同比和环比均在改善。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">随着疫苗逐步推广，开春后机场有很大弹性。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">策略方面：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据上述交流我们做如下微调，减持健帆生物同比例买入159938医药ETF；</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">减持中国建筑同比例买入600004白云机场；</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">加仓海能实业、美亚光电至标配</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">【风险自担</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">仅</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">供参考】</span></p>    <!--[qianfan_bbs_end]--></div>