今日策略分析

宏信证券黄胜

<!--[qianfan_html]--><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.meishanren.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476"><div class="preview_article ">            <!--[qianfan_bbs_start]-->    <p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今天是2020年最后一个交易日，最后一天我们应该有一个小小的总结和展望。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2020</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">年一定是可以记入历史史册的一年，因为新冠疫情的原因，全球资本市场出现了巨幅动荡，但是2季度后各国资本市场都出现了好转，美国、中国、日本股市持续走高，很多人不解为什么美国经济持续下行中股市持续新高。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今年全球资本市场持续向好的核心原因是流动性宽泛，这点在中国股市上一样得到印证。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">上半年半导体，下半年新能车估值均出现大幅上涨。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">尤其是进入四季度，光伏、锂电、白酒以及大宗商品持续上涨，而一方面业绩预期相对确定，另一方面美元贬值导致流动性宽泛资本有抗通胀需求。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但是我们从每天的成交量榜单上发现，交易量主要集中在大市值公司，从而带动指数持续上涨，很多个人投资者发现目前赚钱越来越难，一方面要选对风口，另一个方面还要选对个股，以前炒小票的逻辑目前不断受到挑战。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">其实我们真该转变思路，革命早期我们靠游击战逐步扩大根据地，但是到了后期要解放全国还是要靠实实在在的三大战役。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">集团作战和游击战是不同的思路，所以今后不管是什么行业，优先选择行业大市值龙头是首要任务。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">另一方面，今年公募基金表现依旧亮眼，我们多次提及机构投资者优势在当前严</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">监管下会越来越突出，在收益和波动之间取得了相对平衡。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们认为这种趋势基本不可逆，会持续加强。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">策略上：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">新能车及新能源短期会出现高波动，交易型投资者要展现出T0交易水准，配置型投资者目前仍以持有为主。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">另外，前天5G有资金介入迹象，短期可以关注下相关产业链的IDC板块，部分个股已经回撤超过50%，但是龙头个股表现相对较好，例如宝信软件等</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">【风险自担</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">仅</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">供参考】</span></p>    <!--[qianfan_bbs_end]--></div>