今日策略分析

宏信证券黄胜

<!--[qianfan_html]--><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.meishanren.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010476"><div class="preview_article ">            <!--[qianfan_bbs_start]-->    <p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">20</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">20</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最后一个交易日市场完美收官，权重股集体发力，各大指数纷纷收中阳，同时留下一个跳空缺口。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">结构上看对指数贡献最大的是证券和军工板块，我们近期反复提及的银保证中，证券出现了明显的&beta;收益。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今天我们再次说下军工板块。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">军工我们在8月初提醒过，但是接下来的3个多月出现了一定调整，因此很多人已经遗忘，或者忍不住止损。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">本次军工上涨有一个重要的政策驱动就是需求侧改革。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 0em; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">需求侧改革相对于供给侧改革是一个较为模糊的概念，理论上可以通过行政指令或者提高门槛来压缩低效产能，从而优化经济结构，这在美国也有先例，但是需求侧改革确实很难摸着头绪。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">近期市场对需求侧改革找到了军工这个突破口，相对于民用需求的市场化，军工需求具有很大的非市场化因素，这个勾起大家对供给侧改革的逻辑。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从整个大环境来说，结合中美的竞合、全世界民粹的崛起、国内军改的接近尾声，军工行业逐步在改变行业自身的原有逻辑，头部主机公司从2020年开始业绩在逐步释放。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">军工行业本身能够激起市场的炒作热情，因此我们认为军工短期仍有一定的炒作空间。</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="text-indent: 0em; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; font-size: 18px; color: #363636; text-align: justify; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">今日策略：</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">炒作军工有几个工具，1、头部整机企业，如沈飞、西飞、洪都等；</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2、配件和机加工，这方面个股众多，交易型投资者选择放量的强势个股；</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3、可选择相应的国防ETF或者军工ETF，这是最为折中的方案。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同时有&ldquo;军工茅台&rdquo;美誉的中航光电依然是众多机构投资者长期配置的标的</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-indent: 0em; color: #205867; font-family: 微软雅黑, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">【风险自担</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">仅</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #ff0000; font-size: 14px; text-indent: 41px; caret-color: #ff0000; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">供参考】</span></p>    <!--[qianfan_bbs_end]--></div>