仁寿期待的成昆高铁，可能有点悬了
<!----><style type="text/css">html{font-size:375%}</style><link href="https://pic.app.meishanren.com/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010485" rel="stylesheet" position="1" data-qf-origin="/static/publish/css/style.css?v=1605251010485"><div class="preview_article "> <!----> <section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">经历了十余年飞速发展的高铁，规划和建设热度要降下来了。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3月29日，国务院办公厅公开发布《关于进一步做好铁路规划建设工作的意见》（下称《意见》），对当前铁路发展情况进行分析，并对未来铁路规划建设提出更为细致的标准和要求。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《意见》首先肯定了铁路发展的成就，“铁路是关系国计民生的重要基础设施，为支撑和引领经济社会发展发挥了重要作用”。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但《意见》同时也指出当前铁路发展所面临的问题：一些地方存在片面追求高标准、重高速轻普速、重投入轻产出等情况，铁路企业也面临经营压力较大、债务负担较重等问题。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《意见》要求，未来要科学有序推进铁路规划建设，防范化解债务风险，并对高铁速度标准提出前置条件。</span></section><section style="font-size: 16px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; justify-content: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: auto; vertical-align: top; min-width: 10%; height: auto; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 270.21875px; vertical-align: top; background-color: #e9e9e9; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; color: #000000; font-size: 18px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3838; word-wrap: break-word !important;">高铁规划速度与客流密度相关 </span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: left; justify-content: flex-start; font-size: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 135.109375px; vertical-align: top; height: auto; line-height: 0; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #be0808; height: 2px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><h3 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin-right: 8px; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: 8px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">在中国，高铁速度等级一般有250km/h，300km/h，350km/h。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">但是在规划过程中，最高设计时速到底选择250公里还是350公里，此前并没有明确的规定，由此也导致一些线路速度与实际需求不符。</span></h3><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">此次发布的《意见》，明确将速度等级与客流密度挂钩。如果规划建设时速350公里的高铁主通道，需满足三个条件——贯通省会及特大城市、近期双向客流密度2500万人次/年以上、中长途客流比重在70%以上。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">规划建设串联规模较大的地级以上城市、近期双向客流密度2000万人次/年以上、路网功能较突出的高铁线路，可预留时速350公里条件。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">规划建设近期双向客流密度1500万人次/年以上的高铁区域连接线，可采用时速250公里标准。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">规划建设城际铁路线路，原则上采用时速200公里及以下标准。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京交通大学教授赵坚对界面新闻表示，关于2500万人次/年的客流密度，除了京沪、京广等线路，其他绝大部分线路都无法达到这个标准；如果严格按此要求，未来将几乎不会再新建350公里/小时的高铁。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">赵坚强调，客流密度不是指旅客发送人次，一般客流密度的数值小于旅客发送量。由于客流密度=(运送旅客数量*平均运距)/线路营业里程，所以一条线路，相同旅客发送量，如果短途人次越多，客流密度将越低。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据《意见》，时速250公里的高铁，客流密度需达到1500万人次/年，但大多数高铁也无法达到。以连接西安和成都两个特大城市的西成高铁为例，其设计时速为250公里，2019年旅客发送量为1314.5万人次，客流密度相应地更低。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">兰新高铁（兰州至乌鲁木齐）设计时速同样是250公里，客流更加稀少。根据《甘肃日报》报道，兰新高铁开通前4年累计发送2017.53万人次旅客，年均约500万人次，客流密度必然更低。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《意见》中特别提到，有关单位要加强对客流密度等技术指标的论证审核，对数据造假等行为依法依规严肃问责。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同时《意见》还要求，既有高铁能力利用率不足80%的，原则上不得新建平行线路；规划建设中西部地区路网空白区域铁路新线，一般采用客货共线标准。</span></section><section style="font-size: 16px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; justify-content: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: auto; vertical-align: top; min-width: 10%; height: auto; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 133.328125px; vertical-align: top; background-color: #e9e9e9; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; font-size: 18px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #3c3838; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">防范债务风险</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: left; justify-content: flex-start; font-size: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 66.65625px; vertical-align: top; height: auto; line-height: 0; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #be0808; height: 2px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><h3 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin-right: 8px; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: 8px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国高铁过去十多年经历了如火如荼的建设，给群众出行带来了极大的方便，但同时由于票价不高、客流不大，绝大部分高铁处于亏损状态。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">加上高铁建设成本极高，导致中国国家铁路集团有限公司（下称国铁集团）债务高企。</span></h3><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">截至2020年三季度末，国铁集团总债务为5.57万亿元，资产负债率65.88%，超高的债务已持续多年。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">北京交通大学教授赵坚2019年初曾撰写</span><a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: #576b95; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" href="https://www.jiemian.com/article/2844468.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-linktype="2"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《谨防高铁灰犀牛》</span></a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一文，提出“高铁的巨额负债或引发金融风险”的观点。此后该话题时有被提起，并得到政府部门的重视。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">赵坚分析，不仅国铁集团债务高企，地方政府为了修建高铁也累计大量债务，并与地方政府的各类负债混杂在一起。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">此次发布的《意见》明确提出，要妥善处理存量债务，严格控制新增债务，防范化解债务风险。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">赵坚分析认为，减少高铁建设，将成为严控新增债务的重要途径。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《意见》还提到，要建立健全铁路债务风险监测预警机制，加强地方项目出资能力、运营补亏能力等审核，合理控制债务负担较重、超出财政承受能力地区的铁路建设。</span></section><section style="font-size: 16px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; justify-content: center; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: auto; vertical-align: top; min-width: 10%; height: auto; box-shadow: #000000 0px 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 3px 10px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 270.21875px; vertical-align: top; background-color: #e9e9e9; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: justify; color: #000000; font-size: 18px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; min-height: 1em; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3838; word-wrap: break-word !important;">高铁建设放缓，优化运输结构 </span></strong></p></section></section></section><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: left; justify-content: flex-start; font-size: 0px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 135.109375px; vertical-align: top; height: auto; line-height: 0; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #be0808; height: 2px; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); clear: both; min-height: 1em; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"> </p><h3 style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin-right: 8px; margin-bottom: 25px; margin-left: 8px; font-weight: 400; font-size: 16px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">事实上，在此次文件发布之前，已有迹象显示中国高铁建设将逐步放缓。</h3><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">国家发改委基础司副司长郑剑去年底在一次讲话中提到，铁路项目实施需满足财务平衡基本要求，合理引导社会预期，防止相互攀比、盲目建设以及片面追求高标准。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">郑剑说，高铁规划建设应有客流支撑，有盈利预期，要避免重复建设和过度建设，建成后长期运营补贴是不可持续的。此外，今后铁路新建项目还将面临土地、线站位、环保等方面越来越紧的约束，需要引起高度重视。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">国家发改委也在2020年12月16日的新闻发布会上特地强调，避免把城际铁路建成高铁，城际铁路设施时速宜为160-200公里。这也是对高铁建设的严格把控的表态。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">数据更能说明趋势。“十三五”期间，全国铁路营业里程由12.10万公里增加到14.63万公里，其中高铁由1.98万公里增加到3.79万公里。过去5年间铁路共新增2.53万公里，其中1.81万公里是高铁，平均每年3620公里。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">而据《中国经营报》报道，今年国铁集团计划投产高铁线路1600公里，不及过去5年平均水平的一半。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">此次由国务院出台的《意见》，则是更为重磅的表态。赵坚认为，这是中国铁路建设史上一个非常大的转折。“高铁大跃进刹车了。”他说。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">另一方面，普速铁路和货运铁路在《意见》中得到重视。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">根据要求，要优化高速铁路与普速铁路结构，促进客运与货运协调发展。普速铁路要充分用好通道资源，提高货物运输能力和集装箱多式联运比例。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">同时，规划建设中西部地区路网空白区域铁路新线，一般要采用客货共线标准。而由于高铁线路目前无法成为货运线，这意味着未来中西部路网空白区域新建的将是普速铁路。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2019年中国社会物流总费用与GDP的比率为14.7%，比世界平均水平高出3.8个百分点（美国、德国、日本一般为8～9%），其中运输成本占物流成本的50%，运输结构不合理是运输成本高、社会物流成本高的重要原因。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国地方铁路协会会长黄民表示，应进一步优化运输结构，提高铁路等低成本运输方式的市场份额。</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.3); margin: 0px 8px 25px; padding: 0px; caret-color: #333333; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Helvetica Neue', 'PingFang SC', 'Hiragino Sans GB', 'Microsoft YaHei UI', 'Microsoft YaHei', Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 0.5440000295639038px; text-align: justify; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; line-height: 1.75em; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">《意见》中提到，通过一系列改变，到2035年，将使铁路网络布局结构更加优化完善，铁路债务规模和负债水平处于合理区间。(界面新闻)</span></section> <!----></div> 太多字了，看不下去 嘿狗儿 发表于 2021-3-30 13:41太多字了，看不下去
北京交通大学教授赵坚对界面新闻表示，关于2500万人次/年的客流密度，除了京沪、京广等线路，其他绝大部分线路都无法达到这个标准；如果严格按此要求，未来将几乎不会再新建350公里/小时的高铁。
落日海湾 发表于 2021-3-30 13:44
北京交通大学教授赵坚对界面新闻表示，关于2500万人次/年的客流密度，除了京沪、京广等线路，其他绝大部 ...
哦哦，还是课代表好按照这个要求的话，那确实是没得戏了 以后会说，中国的高铁，在历史进程中的2021年，由于过高的估计了客流条件，导致建设标准降低，人为造成浪费。
今后，决策机构应多方面听取基层意见，严禁单方面听取部分所谓专家意见，促进我国各项建设科学，具有前瞻性的推进。 300的速度也可以啊！
成昆高铁，只要走眉山站-西昌站-攀枝花站就完美了
勇敢了 发表于 2021-3-30 14:21
本来就是意淫。。。成昆复线都还没开通，就算开通怕短期也很难达到80%以上设计客流，就算一二十年后达到了 ...
还一二十年后达到，看看这个图吧，谁来坐啊！
还是好好等外环和s5支线吧！反正仁寿也会有火车站的，去成都才是正方向，昆不昆明无所谓的！
勇敢了 发表于 2021-3-30 18:35
S5支线都恼火了。。。仁寿短期恐怕只有外环铁路
s5支线恼火了，那仁寿人民不是要气炸
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